Category Archives: Investing

Chimpanzees, hedgehogs & foxes: Philip Tetlock on what it takes to be a Superforecaster

In a landmark study undertaken between 1984 and 2004, Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. His latest project, which began in 2011, has since shown that there are some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are often ordinary people who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy significantly greater than the average. In his book Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, co-authored with Dan Gardner, Tetlock identifies how you can improve your accuracy of future predictions and become a superforecaster.

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Want to know more about my latest Book Competition?

Between now and the end of the year, I'm sharing fortnightly the wisdom that I have gained from my favourite recent reads, as it relates to life and business. The books I've chosen to summarise are: The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock, Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World by General Stanley McChrystal, Coaching for Performance by Sir John Whitmore and Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl.

Anyone on my mailing list will get these posts delivered straight to their inbox and be entered into the draw at the end of the series. One subscriber will win fresh copies of all five books and five runners-up will receive one book of their choosing from the series. I'll announce the winners and send out the books in time for Christmas. To be in with a chance, all you have to do is subscribe to my blog below.